Central Bank reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to nine percent

Yaseen Anwar, Governor SBP

By Mohammad Nazakat Ali

(Pakistan News & Features Services)

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to bring it down to 9 percent with effect from June 24, 2013.

This was decided by the Central Board of Directors of the State Bank of Pakistan at its meeting held under the chairmanship of SBP Governor, Yaseen Anwar, in Karachi on June 21.

According to the Monetary Policy Decision, the SBP has decided to place a higher weight to declining inflation and low private sector credit relative to risks to the balance of payments position.

Following is the complete text of the Monetary Policy decision:

“There has been a discernible positive change in sentiments post May 2013 elections because of clarity on the political front. The change in the behavior of banks in auctions of government securities and reaction of stock market are two examples. Importantly, there has been a considerable improvement in SBP conducted surveys of consumer confidence, expected economic conditions, and inflation expectations. The absence of foreign financial inflows and high fiscal borrowings from the banking system, however, remain formidable economic challenges, especially for monetary policy. Similarly, power shortages and security conditions continue to be strong impediments to growth.”

“An almost continuous and broad based deceleration in inflation over the last year has had a favorable impact on inflation outlook – a key variable in monetary policy decisions.  In May 2013, the year-on-year CPI inflation was 5.1 percent while trimmed measure of core inflation was 6.7 percent; the lowest levels since October 2009. The average CPI inflation for FY13 is expected to be at least two percentage points below the target of 9.5 percent.”

“However, in the latest budget the government has announced an increase of 1 percentage point in the General Sales Tax (GST), from 16 percent to 17 percent, and changes in the tax structure for some goods and services. In addition, the government is considering a phase-wise upward adjustment in electricity tariff. The exact magnitude and timing of this adjustment is yet to be decided. Therefore, there is a risk that average inflation for FY14 could exceed the announced target of 8 percent for the year. However, aggregate demand in the economy is expected to remain moderate, which could have a dampening effect on inflation.”

“A reflection of the current declining trend in inflation can be seen in the muted real economic activity, especially private investment expenditures. Beset by energy shortages and law and order conditions, the GDP growth has struggled to ameliorate in the last few years and this year was no exception. The provisional estimate of GDP growth for FY13 is 3.6 percent, which is lower than the 4.3 percent target for the year. Similarly, private fixed capital formation has decreased by 1.8 percent – the fifth consecutive year of a declining trend. Although there has been an encouraging uptick in the growth of Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) sector, 4.8 percent in April 2013, it is too early to term it as an emerging trend.”

“A declining inflation trend and below potential GDP growth make a case for further reduction in the policy rate. The argument is twofold. First, the SBP has been giving a relatively high priority to inflation in its monetary policy decisions over the last few years. Thus, continuing to do so would indicate consistency in the monetary policy stance. Second, without further reduction in the policy rate, the real interest rate – policy rate minus expected inflation – would increase due to declining inflation. High real interest rates are not helpful for supporting private investment in the economy.”

“However, as indicated in the last monetary policy decision, the current balance of payments position and a structural imbalance in fiscal accounts suggest vigilance. The stress in the balance of payments position was a prime consideration in maintaining the policy rate at 9.5 percent in the last two monetary policy decisions. The basic argument has been that the return on rupee denominated assets needs to be sufficiently attractive to discourage speculative demand for dollars.”

“There is no significant revision in the assessment of the balance of payments position since the last monetary policy decision. The external current account deficit is expected to remain manageable, around 1 percent of GDP for FY13, signifying very low risk from this source for the external accounts. The real challenge continues to emanate from the lack of financial inflows. Let alone finance the small current account deficit, there has been a cumulative net capital and financial outflow of $143 million during the first eleven months of the current fiscal year. Add to this the on-going payments of IMF loans and it becomes clear that the pressure on foreign exchange reserves has not abated. As of 14th June 2013, SBP’s foreign exchange reserves stand at $6.2 billion.”

“There are two developments, however, that are worth highlighting. First, there has been a noticeable change in sentiments, as highlighted above, that can potentially have a favorable influence on private financial inflows. Other than the overall economic outlook, investment decisions do take into account the relative political certainty that determines the continuation of economic policies for some time in the future. Second, declining inflation has increased the relative real return on rupee denominated assets. This could provide some room for downward adjustment in nominal returns to cater to broad macroeconomic considerations despite external account concerns.”

“In this context, a lot depends on the fiscal outlook. The fiscal deficit for FY13 has been estimated to reach 8.8 percent of GDP, which is considerably higher than earlier projections. The source of deviation is structural and well known – low tax revenues due to absence of meaningful tax reforms and continuation of untargeted subsidies without comprehensively addressing the energy sector problems. For FY14, the federal government has announced a provisional estimate of 6.3 percent of GDP. “

“From the monetary policy perspective, it is the financing pressure of the fiscal position that is the source of stress. Due to almost zero net external financing in FY13, the burden of financing the sizeable deficit of 8.8 percent has fallen disproportionately on domestic sources, in particular the banking system. During 1st July – 7th June, FY13, fiscal borrowings from the banking system for budgetary support were Rs1230 billion, including Rs413 billion from the SBP. The high level of these borrowings has kept an upward pressure on the system’s liquidity and thus short term market interest rates and is restraining growth in the private sector credit.”

“If the economy is to reap the benefits of evolving positive sentiments and lure the domestic as well as foreign investors then implementation of a reform oriented and credible medium term fiscal outlook is essential. On its part, the Central Board of Directors of SBP has decided to place a higher weight to declining inflation and low private sector credit relative to risks to the balance of payments position. Therefore, the policy rate is being reduced by 50 basis points, to 9 percent, with effect from 24th June 2013.”

CENTRAL BANK LEAVES POLICY RATE UNCHANGED AT 12 PERCENT

The Central Board of Directors of the State Bank of Pakistan at its meeting held under the Chairmanship of SBP Governor, Mr. Yaseen Anwar in Karachi today has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12 percent after thoroughly considering the need to revive growth and emerging risks to macroeconomic stability.

‘To promote competition in the banking system and to offer alternative sources of savings to the population, SBP has been encouraging depositors to invest in government securities through Investor’s Portfolio Securities (IPS) accounts,’ the State Bank of Pakistan said in its Monetary Policy Decision.

It said the option of maintaining saving deposits or investments in IPS accounts could provide stiff  competition  to  banks  forcing  them  to  offer  better  returns  on  deposits.  ‘This  in  turn  would incentivize savings and help lower the currency in circulation,’ it added.

Moreover, it will improve the transmission of monetary policy changes to market interest rates, SBP’s  Monetary Policy  Decision said,  adding  that  over  time  this  strategy  would  also  diversify  the government’s funding source, deepen the secondary market of government securities, and facilitate the issuance of corporate debt.

Following is the complete text of the Monetary Policy Decision:

“The SBP reduced its policy rate by 200 bps, to 12 percent, in FY12 so far. The objective of adopting this stance is to support revival of private investment in the economy despite a constraining domestic and global economic environment.   The primary factors in support of this stance were the expectation  of  average  CPI  inflation  remaining  within  the  announced  target  in  FY12  and  a  small projected external current account deficit. In pursuing this stance SBP did acknowledge the risks to macroeconomic stability emanating from fiscal weaknesses and falling foreign financial inflows. These include resurgence of medium term inflationary pressures and challenges SBP is facing in managing market liquidity and preserving foreign exchange reserves.

A reassessment of latest developments and projections indicate that macroeconomic risks have somewhat increased during the last two months. For instance, although the year‐on‐year CPI inflation stands at 11 percent in October 2011, the month‐on‐month inflation trends, averaging at around 1.3 percent per month during the first four months of FY12, show existence of inflationary pressures. The sifting of commodity level CPI data reveal that the number of CPI items exhibiting year‐on‐year inflation of more than 10 percent is consistently increasing and almost all of these items belong to the non‐food category. The government has also increased its wheat support price by Rs100 to Rs1050 per 40kg for the next wheat procurement season.

Thus, while the average inflation may settle around the targeted 12 percent for FY12, it is uncertain that inflation will come down to a single digit level in FY13. The main determinants of this inflation behaviour are government borrowing from the banking system and inertial effects of high

inflation on its expected path. The severe energy shortages are also holding back the effective utilization of productive capacity and adding to the high inflation‐weak growth problem.

On the external front, the earlier comfortable external current account position for FY12, which helped SBP in lowering its policy rate, has become less benign. The actual external current account deficit of $1.6 billion for the first four months of FY12 is now higher than the earlier projected deficit for the year. The main reason for this larger than expected deterioration is the rising trade deficit. In particular, the windfall gains to export receipts due to abnormally high cotton prices in FY11 have dissipated faster than anticipated. This is indicated by slightly less than $2 billion per month export receipts in September and October 2011. At the same time, international oil prices of around $110 per barrel and strong growth in non‐oil imports have kept the total import growth at an elevated level of close to $3.4 billion per month. Adding to the challenges faced by the external sector is the precarious global economic outlook.

A relatively larger external current account deficit in FY12 would require higher financial inflows to maintain foreign exchange reserves. However, during July‐October, FY12, the total net direct and portfolio inflows were only $207 million while there was a net outflow of $113 million in official loans. As a consequence, SBP’s liquid foreign exchange reserves have declined to $13.3 billion at end‐October

2011 compared to $14.8 billion at end‐June 2011. Given the scheduled increase in repayments of

outstanding  loans  in  H2‐FY12,  realization  of  substantial  foreign  flows,  especially  the  proceeds  of assumed privatization receipts, euro bond, Coalition Support Funds, and 3G licence fees, becomes important for strengthening the external position.

A reflection of widening external current account deficit and declining financial inflows can be seen in the reduction of Rs115 billion in the Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of SBP’s balance sheet during 1

July – 18 November, 2011. This implies that to meet the economy’s prevailing demand for money, SBP has to provide substantial liquidity in the system, at least to the extent of compensating for the declining NFA of SBP. As of 28 November 2011, the outstanding amount of liquidity injected by SBP through its Open Market Operations (OMOs) is Rs340 billion. This is significantly higher than normal SBP operations and appears to have developed characteristics of a permanent nature at this point in time.

A dominant source of demand for money and thus liquidity injections by SBP is government borrowings for budgetary support from the banking system. Excluding the issuance of government securities  of  Rs391  billion  to  settle  the  circular  debt  and  commodity  loans,  the  government  has borrowed Rs255 billion from scheduled banks and Rs62 billion from SBP during 1 July – 18 November,

2011 to finance its current year’s budget deficit. The growth in private sector credit has remained muted so far but may pick up in coming months as the desired effects of a cumulative decrease of 200 bps in the policy rate and reduction in financial constraints of the energy sector gather momentum.

In this context where government is the main user of the system’s liquidity and banks remain hesitant to extend credit to the private sector, SBP faces a dilemma. Efforts to scale down liquidity injections could have implications for settlement of payments in the interbank market, which is an important consideration given SBP’s mandate of maintaining financial stability. Even if these considerations are addressed, the government may end up settling its obligations by borrowing from SBP. This does not bode well for government’s own commitment of keeping such borrowings at zero on quarterly basis. The marginally increasing trend of these injections, on the other hand, also carries inflationary risk, which is not consistent with the objective of achieving and maintaining price stability.

There are three solutions to this predicament of reconciling price and financial stability considerations and supporting private investment in the economy. First, the government needs to ensure that all or major parts of budgeted foreign inflows materialize as soon as possible. This will alleviate pressure on the balance of payments and help inject fresh rupee liquidity in the system. Second,  sooner  than  later  the  government  will  have  to  initiate  comprehensive  tax  reforms  that broadens the tax base of the economy. This is of paramount importance to reduce the government’s borrowing requirements from the scheduled banks that are currently not consistent with the objective of promoting private sector and economic growth. Third, efforts need to be stepped up to improve financial deepening and increase competition in the banking system.

The last of these solutions is something that SBP has been actively working on. For instance, to promote  competition  in  the  banking  system  and  to  offer  alternative  sources  of  savings  to  the population, SBP has been encouraging depositors to invest in government securities through Investor’s Portfolio Securities (IPS) accounts. The option of maintaining saving deposits or investments in IPS accounts could provide stiff competition to banks forcing them to offer better returns on deposits. This in turn would incentivize savings and help lower the currency in circulation. Moreover, it will improve the transmission of monetary policy changes to market interest rates. Over time this strategy would also diversify the government’s funding source, deepen the secondary market of government securities, and facilitate the issuance of corporate debt.

Finally, it must be understood that there are uncertainties involved in realizing the full benefits of these measures. These uncertainties can potentially have adverse effects on SBP’s recent efforts to support private sector credit and investment in the economy. Therefore, after giving due consideration to the need to revive growth and emerging risks to macroeconomic stability, the Central Board of Directors of SBP has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 12 percent.”