Statement by an IMF Staff Mission on Pakistan

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff mission, led by Adnan Mazarei, met with the Pakistani authorities in Islamabad to continue discussions on the fifth review under Pakistan’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Mr. Mazarei made the following statement at the conclusion of the mission today:

“Over the past few days, an IMF staff mission and the Pakistani authorities had constructive discussions which focused on assessing the impact of the floods on Pakistan’s economy, adjusting economic policies to respond effectively to the needs created by the floods, and on the outlook for the rest of the financial year 2010/11.1

“Progress has been made regarding the measures to be implemented in the context of the authorities’ economic stabilization and reform agenda, while protecting the poor. Specifically, we have reached broad agreement on the macroeconomic framework and a revised 2010/11 budget deficit target to help flood victims, and rein in inflation, which hurts the poor most. The authorities consider that the reformed general sales tax is essential to raise revenue to finance relief for flood victims, poverty reduction, and infrastructure reconstruction. Tax reform is also needed to make the tax system more equitable. The authorities recognize the critical importance of energy sector reform. They have initiated reforms aimed at reducing load shedding, which is severely hurting economic activity; curtailing energy subsidies in order to free up budget resources for spending in priority areas; and resolving the issue of circular debt.

“The IMF remains committed to the ongoing dialogue with the Pakistani authorities, and discussions will continue including around the Pakistan Development Forum to support Pakistan’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability and growth and completing the fifth SBA review.”

Pakistan on path of economic recovery: IMF

Pakistan’s economic growth has started to recover despite security and energy challenges and the country met almost all targets under the International Monetary Fund program, the global financial institution said on Tuesday.

“Pakistan’s program is progressing well,” the Fund said in a statement following ‘constructive discussions’ with Pakistani officials focusing on Pakistan’s recent economic performance, the outlook for the rest of the fiscal year.

Adnan Mazarei, who met with the Pakistani officials in Dubai over the past week to initiate discussions on the fourth review under Pakistan’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), noted that Islamabad observed all quantitative performance criteria, except for the budget deficit target, which exceeded by a small margin.

Listing positive trends Pakistan registered in recent months, the Fund said the exchange rate has remained stable at Rs 84–85 per US dollar, and the international reserves position has strengthened (the banking system’s gross foreign exchange reserves, including the State Bank and commercial banks, reached $14.3 billion in mid-February, of this total, the State Bank held $10.5 billion).

The early signs of recovery in some sectors and the improved external position are encouraging, although there are risks and challenges to Pakistan’s economic program.

“Economic growth in Pakistan is starting to recover; large-scale manufacturing output has started to increase, the improvement in the global economy has helped manufacturing exports, and private sector credit growth has picked up to some extent as businesses rebuild their working capital.

The IMF’s package for Pakistan - approved in November 2008- has been extended to $11.3 billion. Looking ahead, the IMF statement said, a resumption of higher growth is needed to raise living standards and will require improvements in the business climate to stimulate higher investment by local and foreign investors.

Emphasizing the need for stepped up donors support for the key anti-terror partner of the international community, the Fund said, early disbursement of donor financing remains crucial to support Pakistan’s stabilisation and reform efforts as well as laying the basis for a sustainable growth.

The IMF mission staff will prepare a report on the fourth review under Pakistan’s SBA, which is scheduled for consideration by the IMF Executive Board in late March.